How accurate is our census?

By Cherelle Jackson

The Samoan Census reports apart from the Crimes Ordinance and the Economic Performance reports ranks highest on my list of most informative and valuable research sources produced locally.
It is a good source for background information into any story or issue in Samoa, it is of course the main reference in terms of population, housing, employment and other important facts pertaining to the Samoan people.
The latest census however poses some questionable figures.
For instance, how accurate is the latest total population figure?
The total population in 2001 was 176,710, and in 2006 it increased to 179,186 that meant that in five years Samoas population noted a slight increase of 2476 residents.
Factors such as birth rate, death rate, migration patterns and of course the actual counting process itself can impact the accuracy of a census.
But the slight increase seems somewhat inaccurate based on Samoas consistent increase in birthrate and prolonged life expectancy.
The CIA Factbook, perhaps the most update source of basic country information estimated Samoas birthrate at 16.43 per 1000 people in 2006.
They projected a 72% increase in birthrate for 2007, the highest projection yet.
The Tupua Tamasese Meole II Hospital maternity ward records a maximum of 25 births a day, averaging at about 100 babies born per week and a 300 a month.
“There are 2000 to 3000 recorded births a year at the national hospital,” said one inside source.
According to the source, more than 70 new pregnancies are checked weekly at TTMHII for women from the Apia urban and surrounding areas.
If such statistics are correct than in five years there would have been an average of 12,500 births based on the birthrate statistics and estimates.
So why then, has there only been a 2476 increase in population?
In 2006, we were ranked 146 in death rates of the world thus indicating a low death rate.
Samoa posed an estimated 6.62 per 1000 population, a low number which was also projected to decrease by 11.18% this year.
So why has Samoas population gone fairly unscathed in the last five years?
Several people I have spoken to in regards to this editorial have said that they were not counted in last years census.
“I have four children, husband, a cousin with a wife and three children living in the same compound and we were all not counted,” said one Upolu resident.
On a more personal account, in my village of Safua Savaii, the 2001 population of 287 has decreased by four people according to the last census.
I find this hard to believe, considering three of the largest households have had more births in our villages than death, and there have generally been more people moving back into the village than moving out.
This of course is not meant to discredit the work of tireless surveyors and everyone at the Statistics Department involved in the creation of the Census, but I feel it is important to find out the exact reasons for such a slight change in total population.
Are the methods used accurate?
Was everyone counted?
It would be good at the end of the day, to know that everyone is represented in those precious digits which would resonate throughout the centuries as proof of our mere existence in Samoa.
In this case, even just 1 is an integral number.